NFL / Kaepernick Update: No Job, Low Ratings, Standing Up In Mexico

Colin Kaepernick and his choices (blaming everyone but himself) was one of the first RealityDispatch exposés.  We followed up with whether the NFL has suffered ticket and ratings loses because of him.  RealityDispatch isn’t really focused on Kaepernick, but he is a topic on which the social reality and the factual reality don’t converge well.

What’s New

Highlights:

Kaepernick’s Promised Job

On the 31-October-2017 Adam Carolla show, Colin Kaepernick’s lawyer, Mark Geragos, said he expects Kaepernick to be signed within the next 10 days.

“I think within the next 10 days somebody will sign him, I think somebody’s gonna sign him. I think the NFL has to come to their senses, and realize every day that goes by just proves the collusion case even more.”

This has clearly not happened.  And RealityDispatch didn’t expect to it happen, because:

  1. Kaepernick isn’t very good.
  2. Mark’s statement sounds like a threat that the only way out for the NFL is to hire Kaepernick.

Since there’s no real case for collusion (reread our Dispatch on this for more), this suggests another endgame… blackmail.  With all the depositions, Geragos’ goal seems to be embarrassing the NFL rather than winning the battle.

Unthanksgiving

Just in case anybody mistook his “protests” for a form of patriotism designed to celebrate, but awaken, America, Kaepernick doubled-down.

He celebrated “Unthanksgiving” at Alcatraz.  And he brought a camera crew.

Unthanksgiving is another name for the Indigenous Peoples’ Thanksgiving Sunrise Gathering, an event commemorating the Alcatraz-Red Power Movement (ARPM) occupation of Alcatraz and  memorializing the struggles of Indigenous Peoples against European occupation.

This is consistent with Kaepernick’s chosen public image: a face for those he considers downtrodden by the U.S. (remember: Colin praised Fidel Castro on the basis that while Castro broke up families, tortured and killed… he did have “the highest literacy rate” and didn’t “mass incarcerate” criminals.)   Politics-weary NFL fans and owners may see this more as yet another sign that Kaepernick is an SJW distraction who would detract from the care-free festival atmosphere they want from their games.

Lynch Kneels in Mexico

As we covered before, there was a bit of insensitivity, for which Colin Kaepernick got some credit, when NFL players in London knelt for the American Anthem and then stood for the British anthem.  Former Seahawk, current Raider Marshawn Lynch did the same thing last week in Mexico, a country with far bigger problems than the U.S.

NFL Thanksgiving Ratings

The ratings are inThey’re down.  By a lot.  Which may be due to many reasons beyond Anthem Protests.

The Futon Critic spun this interestingly…

Thursday’s Broadcast Ratings: NBC Rides NFL to Thanksgiving Victory

which is broadly true but not helpful… you must read deeper to see the “Year-to-year” changes, which include:

Year-to-year changes (adults 18-49):
+116.67% - Young Sheldon (vs. The Great Indoors)
+50.00% - Mom
+37.50% - SWAT (vs. Pure Genius)
+30.00% - Life in Pieces
0.00% - Arrow (vs. Whose Line Is It Anyway? (Repeats))
0.00% - Supernatural (vs. Whose Line Is It Anyway? (Repeats))
-27.87% - Sunday Night Football
-31.91% - Football Night in America

In other words, the only two programs that dropped, year-to-year, both dropped by over a quarter and both were football.  NBC got their ratings victory, but it’s sure to be a financial loss in comp-backs.

Credit Suisse cites these lower NFL ratings in their lowered expectations for Fox Sports.

Speaking of that misleading Futon Critic headline…

Recognizing the Bias

If you hadn’t read the table at the Futon Critic, nor had Reality Dispatch to point it out, you might have thought from reading their headline that the Thanksgiving NFL ratings were a success rather than a failure.  That is an example of Media Bias.

Bias is hard to avoid.  Once you know a bit about a topic, you tend to come to conclusions, and those influence how you see, and discuss, additional data.

For example, you might believe:

Regardless of your leanings, many articles have something useful to say, if you can cut past the bias.  But how?

Let’s take a look at an example.  And, needing an example of obvious bias, we turn to the reliably biased (far-left) Slate and their helpful article, “Quarterback Statistics That May or May Not Be Referenced in Pending Grievances.”

Misrepresenting the Facts

The trick to recognizing bias is in finding other data that is misrepresented or lied about.  “If the glove doesn’t fit, you must acquit“… once you have found any evidence of bias, you should assume everything else is misrepresented.  The source has already impugned itself.

Right off the bat, paragraph 3, Slate states:

NFL team owners will have to convincingly prove that Kaepernick simply doesn’t belong on an NFL roster due to his abilities (or, more appropriately, lack thereof).

This isn’t correct.  The NFL is innocent until proven guilty, and the anti-collusion article (Article 17) is very specific as to what constitutes collusion.  Proving collusion requires proving violation of:

No Club, its employees or agents shall enter into any agreement, express or implied, with the NFL or any other Club, its employees or agents to restrict or limit individual Club decision-making as follows:

In other words, Kaepernick does not have a right to be signed; he must prove that others communicated and agreed to not sign him.

This is the smoking gun.  The author’s credibility has been impugned by the falseohold (that the owners must prove something.)

Ignoring some facts in favor of others

The author lists some quarterback stats from the previous Sunday… Jay Cutler, Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer, Eli Manning and Alex Smith… implying that Kaepernick is better.

Let’s leave aside the implication that Colin Kaepernick is better than Eli Manning, recipient of multiple Super Bowl MVP awards.

In the last two seasons Kaepernick played, his record was 3 wins, 16 losses.  He had the lowest record of any rated quarterback for 2016, at 0.091% in 2016.  (Average was was around 0.53%, due to other players who only played a few games, but unlike Kaepernick, won theirs.)  None of the other Q.B.s Slate compared Kaepernick to have such a consistent record.

Other Examples

From CBS Sports: As Geragos noted, he plans to request a deposition of McNair, which could potentially force the Texans owner to explain why he didn’t sign the best free agent quarterback available. 

Looking at his last two seasons, Kaepernick was the worst in several categories, and compiled an amazingly bad record.  Had the author (John Breech) instead written:

As Geragos noted, he plans to request a deposition of McNair to explain why he chose Matt McGloin over Colin Kaepernick for quarterback given Kaepernick’s superior mobility.

We would have had a solid argument (mobility, matching the Texans’ game) and another fact (it was McGloin signed over Kaepernick), with less posturing.

McNair didn’t make himself many friends with his comment about not wanting the inmates running the asylum.  Which was a literary reference,  but society being what it is today, was read as a variety of insults instead.  Consequently much of the media considers McNair in need of redemption , and is pretty open that such pennance is a primary reason McNair should have hired Kaepernick.

But, again, that is the definition of bias.  The goal of the owner is to make money, which is done by generating ticket sales and ratings, not to pleasing sports writers.

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