Fast Dispatch: Dreaming of a Shutdown?

The big news this week: Will there be a government shutdown?

Why You Should Care?

You probably shouldn’t.  In the long run, it won’t matter.  The “markets” won’t be impacted.  In the short run, a shutdown may inconvenience you through stopped services or delayed checks.  For example, you may not be able to visit a National Park.

What’s It All About?

DACA is the “Dreamers” act; it stands for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, and is probably unconstitutional.   On 05-Sept-2017, President Trump announced that he would give Congress six months (until March 5, 2018) to make it legal.  That deadline may or may not happen, after a strange ruling from Judge Alsup put an injunction against it.

Homeland Security has claimed Trump cannot Constitutionally extend that deadline.

The U.S. Government funding runs out this Friday, 19-Jan-2018.  Which is a month-and-a-half before the DACA deadline.  (The shutdown comes the next day.)

The Democrats want to link funding the government to extending DACA.  President Trump wants to link extending DACA to other immigration reform.  DACA is popular, so the Democrats seem to believe that they should hold the nation hostage over DACA.

Both sides support DACA.  The issue is mostly, with what conditions?

  • Democrats want a “clean bill”, giving them DACA with no other constraints.  The Democrats will not accept actual immigration reform.
  • Republicans want what Democrats usually claim to want, “Comprehensive Immigration Reform”, meaning funding for starting the Wall and reduction of Chain Immigration.

Wasn’t the “deal” Bi-Partisan?

Yes but… that doesn’t mean both parties would have voted for it.  A deal is bipartisan even if just two people, neither in the mainstream of their parties but from different parties, agree to it.  Bi-Partisan doesn’t mean much.

Neither Obamacare nor the Tax Cuts passed with bi-partisan support.

How Can The Democrats Shutdown The Government?

To shut down the government, the Democrats need to prevent a majority vote for the bill in either the House or the Senate.  The Republicans have a solid majority in the House.

In the Senate, there are 51 GOP Senators, which is a majority, but if the Democrats filibuster the bill… meaning they hold the floor and talk endlessly a la Jimmy Stewart in Mr. Smith Goes To Washington, 60 votes are required to end the filibuster.

The Republicans essentially have three sets of opponents for the spending bill:

To pass the spending bill in the Senate, the Republicans need all Republican votes, including the Freedom Caucus, plus nine Democratic Senator votes.   Or enough additional Democrats to compensate for the missing Freedom Caucus votes.

That may seem like a big hurdle, but some of the Democrats are in solidly “Red” states and up for re-election in states Trump won.  That’s the question of, if there is a shutdown…

Who Would Lose?

Also worth noting: President Trump doesn’t seem to care about his approval numbers, and they seem to have a solid bottom, meaning they don’t drop.

 

 

8 thoughts on “Fast Dispatch: Dreaming of a Shutdown?”

    • Thank you. Do you have a preference as to whether the Democrats… or the Freedom Caucus even… shut down the government? Who do you think would win most and lose most from it?

  1. AWFUL,BUT MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT SCARED.
    I’m FOR THE MISTER PRESIDENT, WITH HIM, and ALWAYS WILL HIM SUPPORT.
    He needs to change his Strategy AND CHANGE HIS Method of Actions and Speech.
    Is hard to say: ‘Who will win most, or lost more, but AGREEMENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED!”
    And again, Compromise, with THE DEEP DEMOCRAT’S UNDERSTANDING, that MISTER PRESIDENT is Wright and
    just needs to be surrounded with more HONEST and DEDICATED People, who will make the BIG DIFFERENCE
    in ALL AMERICAN PEOPLE LIFES!

      • Do you really think her message is “typical”? That seems harsh. Trump is shaking things up and getting stuff done.

        Hillary would probably have efficiently raised taxes, increased regulation, passed DACA while increasing illegal immigration and otherwise stonewalled against the split control. She would have continued the same broken foreign policy that the elites fawn over, but that resulted in the Palestine, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea disasters.

        Trump has cut taxes, fixed foreign policy, streamlined and reduced regulations, but has been blocked completely on immigration… sometimes because of his way of talking, sometimes because he changes his mind too often and sometimes because the Democrats don’t want what they claim to want.

        Pick your poison. Does nobody you know and respect prefer Trump over Hillary?

        • “…sometimes because…”

          Both sides benefit from immigration to some extent.
          Democrats get votes from the immigrants, but Republicans get cheap labor for capitalism.

          Esp since all (well, most) of the immigrants end up in Texas, Cali or Florida where there is already huge immigrant populations…. its not as disastrous for the vote for republicans as some might think. (Electoral college)

          If that weren’t the case the border would already be on a stiff lockdown, as republicans completely controlled Capital Hill, basically.

          Truth be told, both sides may suck, but Trump is actually accomplishing things for the working class. Something I haven’t seen a single president do in my life.

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